Dan Niles has a BIG Problem with SpaceX's Valuation

Dan Niles joins the show to deliver the institutional bear case on SpaceX, explaining why he wants nothing to do with the stock at IPO despite calling himself a "major Elon Musk fanboy." Dan covers why the valuation at 90-110x revenues is a problem that doesn't go away, how closet indexers will prop the stock up through Nasdaq 100 inclusion before the real test begins, why Amazon doubling revenue while the stock fell 95% is the most relevant historical parallel, and why he thinks valuation matters even when the company and the founder are world class. He also shares why he is actually very bullish on the broader market through year end, why semiconductors are his preferred trade over the Magnificent Seven, how he is thinking about Kevin Warsh and rate cuts, and why he believes we are currently in a bubble that probably doesn't break until early next year. Follow WOLF Financial for more: X (Twitter): https://x.com/WOLF_Financial Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wolffinancial_official Trading Focused Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@WOLF_TradingX Wolf Trading X: https://x.com/WOLF_TradingX TimeStamps 0:00 Intro: Dan Niles and why his take matters 0:43 "I am a major Elon Musk fanboy, but..." 1:50 The valuation problem: 90x revenues and accelerating losses 2:52 The market is already punishing companies that need to raise CapEx 3:50 The closet indexer effect: why the stock holds up for 15 days then struggles 6:27 ARK Innovation vs Tesla vs S&P 500: why valuation always catches up 7:48 The Yahoo, Nokia, BlackBerry warning: picking winners is harder than it looks 11:14 The Tesla vs SpaceX arbitrage: same Elon, one tenth the valuation 18:17 Amazon doubled revenue and still fell 95%: the most important parallel 21:23 "We are in a bubble. No question in my mind." 23:09 Why Dan is actually very bullish on the broader market through year end 30:58 Final thought: "I don't need to hit a Nolan Ryan fastball. Give me a fat pitch."